Week 1 Recap: Last week we went 4-1 in my official picks, and if you follow me on twitter it was really a 5-1 week since I gave out the Vandy-South Carolina under on Thursday. I also went 3-1 on my leans for those marquee games, so if you read my article you should have left the weekend a bit richer. Nearly a perfect weekend, but I changed my Texas +3.5 to the under Sunday morning since I felt bad betting against the Irish when I was at the game, and Alabama took USC to the woodshed and basically got the over themselves. Oh well.
Current Record: 4-1
- Oregon -24.5 Virginia
Love this play, and it has more to do with Virginia then anything. The Wahoos just got thrashed 37-20 at home to Richmond. That is a 17 point loss. Now they travel cross country for a 10:30 ET kickoff to play Oregon, who by all accounts is better than Richmond. Toss in the fact Richmond’s RB went for 114 yards and 13 carriers and I’m thinking Royce Freeman runs wild all over the Cavs, leading them to a comfy 30 point win. Love the Ducks in this one.
- San Diego State -7 California
Cal looked alright vs. Hawaii in their opener, putting up 51, but it turns out Hawaii STINKS so that’s looking far less impressive now. San Diego State looked excellent winning an easy 31-0 game to open the year. The reason I’m all over this game is I think Cal just isn’t very good. Their season O/U was 4.5. They looked nice in their opener, but it was vs. an awful team, and lets not forget this team only brought 10 starters back. SDSU by 10.
- Western Kentucky +28.5 @ Alabama
Classic let down game. Coming off the thrashing of USC, Ole Miss next week, and here comes a sneaky good Western Kentucky. Recipe for a let down. Last year in a very similar spot they failed to cover the 34 point spread vs. Middle Tennessee State, only winning by 27. It’s tough to stomach, but I love Western Kentucky in Tuscaloosa.
- Kentucky +16.5 @ Florida
This is a case of two teams whose Week 1 results don’t tell the full story. Kentucky lost to Southern Miss, but they were up quite big. This team isn’t that bad, and besides, Southern Miss is a decent team. Conversely, Florida beat UMASS 24-7, but it was close all the way into the 4th. UMASS is not a decent team. I just don’t think the difference between these teams is 16 points.
- Tulsa +29 @ Ohio State and OVER 74
Tulsa returns 8 starters and their QB from one of the top offenses last year, and just put up 45 vs. a solid San Jose State team week 1. This offense can really play. Meanwhile, OSU topped this over itself last week, putting up 77 in their win over Bowling Green. Tulsa’s defense is improved, but still isn’t the caliber of OSU’s offense. I think the Buckeyes throw up around 52 this week, and Tulsa adds in 28 of their own, giving us the cover and the over. If I had to pick I would roll with the +29, OSU might be looking forward to Oklahoma and come out sloppy to start.
- There are no marquee games to give you my leans on this week, the slate stinks. I would probably take the points in that Tennessee-VT game in Bristol if you really want a pick for the ABC showcase game. Butch Jones and Josh Dobbs just aren’t that great and its going to be a weird game. 11 points is a nice cushion.