Gambling Picks Week 3

Last week was a total mess. I am so sorry. The Tulsa game was a weather disaster, and honestly had I published the article with any knowledge of that weather I would have never made those picks. Kentucky just stinks, that’s on me. SDSU and Oregon had those covers and both blew it. Brutal way to end a tough day. This week will be better

Last Week: 1-4

Current Record: 5-5

  • Oregon vs. Nebraska OVER 73

Oregon’s rush defense is so bad. So so bad. Nebraska’s running backs are pretty good. This is recipe for disaster, so let’s chalk Nebraska up for at least 35. Do you trust Oregon to score 38? People are totally undervaluing Oregon this year, sure Mariota and Chip Kelly are long gone, but this is still a great program with a dominant offensive system and really talented players. Seriously, stop sleeping on Royce Freeman. I think I’ll end up playing Oregon +140 too, but I love the OVER.

  • Stanford -8.5 USC

Stanford has had a week off to prepare for this and still hasn’t started class. USC got exposed by Alabama on the lines and is dealing with an ugly distraction with one of their LB’s. I think Stanford wins by 20. #5 in White is always fun to bet on.

  • Texas A&M +3.5 Auburn, under 54.5

A&M has burned me so many times in gambling, I can’t believe I’m buying into the hype again, but here we are. This is why we gamble. This defense is awesome and Auburn’s offense stinks. That’s what you need to know. A&M does just enough on offense (Christian Kirk is just enough) and wins an ugly game. Sean White stinks don’t forget that.

  • Appalachian State +3.5 Miami

I feel like there is one of these every year. Big Team goes to Little Team home stadium, ESPN comes, and little team plays at 10000 MPH like it’s the Super Bowl. Miami has looked nice and I trust Mark Richt to turn it around, but this defense is waiting to get exposed and the Appalachian State Defense is worlds better than what Miami has seen. Taking the +3.5 instead of the moneyline because +3.5 is a great number.

  • LSU vs. Mississippi State UNDER 45

Danny Etling lost the QB battle to Brandon Harris a mere month ago. I’m not putting any stock in a Jacksonville State game, this offense is a mess. On the other side of the ball, Dave Aranda’s unit is just fine, and I think MSU’s total plateau last game in the 2nd half was due to a lack of gameplan for their different QB. LSU will be ready. LSU isn’t giving up more than 13, and I don’t trust them to score 31 with their QB situation. Simply put this LSU offense is a mess and while 45 is about as a low as college football games go, I’m still on the under.

Big Game Leans

OSU -1.5 vs. Oklahoma. OSU is so good, J.T Barrett wins this one.

Alabama -11 vs. Ole Miss. Alabama’s defense this year is something else and I’ve already stated I’m not an Ole Miss believer.

Florida State -1 vs. Louisville. Francois is a baller and will steal the show from Lamar Jackson. No Derwin James has me worried but FSU is deep and this will be a shootout anyways.

Notes

Notre Dame vs. MSU

  • Everyone keeps saying “How” when looking at this line, and the money keeps pouring in on MSU, and yet the line is still +7.5. STAY AWAY. This smells so bad. If it stays at +7.5 I think I’m taking it pregame. Vegas always knows.

Cal vs. Texas 68.5 to 81 and USF-Syracuse 66 to 74

  • Both these games totals are a lesson in “value”. When I saw the lines Tuesday I had these overs penciled in as 1 and 2 on my picks. I came back to write this today and all the sudden these numbers have BALOONED. Try to check the board Tuesday and if you love a number take it. And if you are wondering, I’m probably still on both overs. Texas-Cal are both the perfect offense to exploit the other. USF is the best offense you don’t know about, and Dino Babers will find a way to get 28 on the board. Quinton Flowers should get us 52.
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