Week 4 College Football Picks

Week 3 record: 4-2

We were a Royce Freeman injury away from 5-1. Nebraska scored the exact 35 points I said they would, Oregon just didn’t get us 38 missing their star RB. And the other loss was a classic being dead wrong about a team. Oh well.

Overall Record: 9-7.

  • Michigan State -5 Wisconsin

Wisconsin beat LSU in Wisconsin and everybody freaked out, problem is the real story here wasn’t Wisconsin, it was that Brandon Harris STINKS. Wisconsin isn’t that good. They shouldn’t be -5 @ MSU, so take advantage. MSU wins this 20-10.

  • South Florida vs. Florida State OVER 61

South Florida is the best offense you’ve never heard of. Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack is one of the country’s most dangerous backfields, and after what Lamar Jackson did to FSU last week there is no reason Flowers can’t put up 30 against FSU. FSU is certainly in the dumps after getting ripped apart last week, but Francois and Cook is still an incredible 1-2 punch of their own, and while South Florida is vastly improved, its still South Florida, they don’t have the dawgs to hang with Cook and Francois for 60 minutes. This game’s total is ending up in the mid 70’s, 61 is terrific value.

  • Florida +6.5 @ Tennessee

This game is going to be such a disaster. Florida is walking into Neyland with a backup QB and a dominant defense. Tennessee comes into this one looking as meh as a top 10 team can look through their first 3 games, featuring a QB who can’t throw and a proven below average coach. All the talent is there for Tennessee to come out and wax Florida in a massive season changing win. It isn’t going to happen. Florida’s defense is awesome, and is going to dominant Josh Dobbs. I don’t know if they win outright, but 6.5 points is way too much. Florida is probably the better team, so even taking away the 3 points for home field Florida +3.5 is a mistake. Give me the Gators. I would also look into the U43.5 my only fear is the number of playmakers on both these teams could result in some big play scores.

  • Auburn vs. LSU UNDER 46

Sean White stinks, I told you this last week, I am telling you it again. Guz Malzahn disagrees however and will be running him out against a very very good LSU defense led by Dave Aranda. This is going to be embarrassing. Auburn is scoring like 6 points. LSU therefore has to really explode on offense to get this over. With Danny Etling at QB, Cam Cameron calling the plays, against a solid Auburn defense. Not gonna happen. I seriously think I would take the under if the line was 36. Auburn isn’t scoring a offensive TD.

  • Louisville @ Marshall OVER 74.5

I first went to this game because I was planning on jumping all over Marshall in what should be the dreaded “letdown game/lookahead game” combo with Louisville crushing FSU and having Clemson next. Then I saw Marshall’s last game. They let up 65. To Akron. 65!. Louisville has scored 60 every game so far. The total is 74.5. We need Marshall to score like 20 against a Louisville team that is probably looking ahead? Sign me up. This game is going to ugly for like a quarter and we will all worry when its 7-7 after 1 and then Louisville is going to just explode, go on a 49-14 run and win 56-21. My legit only worry is they get up 42-0 at half or something and sit Lamar Jackson for next week. But he has a Heisman to win so I think they get their usual 60. I can’t believe this total.

 

Bonus Overs

When an O/U is above 80 take the over every last time. It is the best part of gambling. ASU-Cal is currently at 82. Throw a half unit on it and enjoy. Also I think it’s a lock. Cal is basically Texas Tech.

Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State is the type of game I rarely bet on, as I know jack about these teams, but that over 68 is free money.

Big Game Leans

#7 Stanford @ UCLA +3. Josh Rosen is ready to take off. This week is his coming out party as they knock off Stanford on ABC.

#12 Georgia @ #23 Ole Miss OVER 60.5

That A&M Arkansas game is so weird I have no clue what to do with it, can’t even give out a lean.