Week 5 College Football Picks
Last week: 3-2
Current record: 12-9 (57%)
- Alabama -34.5 Kentucky
Kentucky is so bad on defense. So So Bad. Alabama is going to score 50 with ease, and that’s even if Damien Harris doesn’t play. Alabama’s defense has looked downright unstoppable except for when a veteran QB (Chad Kelly) shredded them, and trust me, UK has neither a veteran QB or a QB capable of shredding Alabama. They are going nowhere. Alabama wins this 52-7.
- Florida State vs. UNC OVER 69
Here is what we know through 4 weeks on these teams. FSU has one of the better offenses in the country, led by Dalvin Cook, Travis Rudolph and Deondre Francois. Their defense is struggling to defend the pass and Dual Threat QB’s, evident by Chad Kelly, Lamar Jackson and Quinton Flowers’ performances against them. Their best player Derwin James is still out. UNC can’t stop the run at all, but has an excellent up-tempo offense led by Dual Threat QB Mitch Trubisky and Ryan Switzer. So basically, both these teams struggle with the other’s biggest strength. This is going to be a shootout. FSU wins 49-38 as Dalvin Cook explodes again.
- South Carolina vs. Texas A&M UNDER 47.5
Trap Game city. Everyone is telling A&M how great they are, and they are looking ahead to their 5-0 vs. 5-0 top 10 showdown vs. Tennessee at home next week. Sadly for them they have to go into South Carolina and face Will Muschamp’s very solid gamecock defense, who has yet to allow over 27 points in a game this year. Their game totals this year are 23,41,35 and 27. I just don’t see the Aggies scoring anything more than like 27 points in this one. So do you think South Carolina can muster up 21 points? A&M wins 27-13 and we get the under by a TD. I also think South Carolina +17.5 is a solid bet.
- Memphis vs. Ole Miss OVER 66.5
Memphis lost Paxton Lynch but this offense is still humming. Riley Ferguson is a more than capable replacement, and they just hung 77 on Bowling Green. 77! I know, OSU did the same thing week 1, but 77 should still jump out at you. On the other side, Chad Kelly has proven my pre-season doubts wrong, and is adjusting to life without MegaQuan just fine. Both these teams have looked awesome on offense all year, they are going to blow past this 66.5 with ease. Ole Miss wins 49-31. This is my favorite pick of the week.
- LSU vs. Missouri UNDER 53.5
We are going to keep betting LSU unders until proven wrong. Ed O can say he wants to liven up the offense, but good luck doing that with Danny Etling under center. Mizzou and Drew Lock have no chance in the swamp vs. Dave Aranda. LSU wins this like 20-13. This total is insulting. This is also my favorite pick of the week. So much so I am making it my first ever 2 unit play. Double Down on this and watch it blow up in our faces.
Big Game Leans
Louisville @ Clemson +2
Wisconsin +10.5 @ Michigan: This is a toss up I have very limited feel for this game.
Stanford +3 @ Washington
Tennessee -3 @ Georgia
I don’t like betting Notre Dame games but umm here’s my thoughts on that one because I feel fairly strongly about it.
Syracuse Notre Dame OVER 74.5
Firing Van Gorder is a nice move by Brian Kelly, but it’s not going to solve anything for the current Irish defense. The fact of the matter is their secondary is Cole Luke and a bunch of guys who should not be playing on the 2016 Notre Dame football team. They have no depth and it is showing, as they frequently rotate in a number of True Freshman DB’s, none of whom have the recruiting profile to be true freshman starters at Notre Dame. The D-Line can’t generate any pressure, giving QB’s all day to pick apart this woefully overmatched back 4. This isn’t going to change by firing Brian Van Gorder. Dino Babers and his high powered Orange attack is going to score 31-35 points against this ND team, I have zero doubt about that. On the other side, I think people are forgetting this ND offense is not a problem. Sure they were awful against MSU for most the game and they should probably have hung more than 35 on Duke, but it’s not like Deshone Kizer and the offense aren’t producing at all. They have scored 47, 39, 28 and 35. Syracuse’s defense is the worst D they will see yet. I am very confident the Irish put up 45 or so points in this one. Take this over and be less heart-broken when Syracuse effortlessly moves the ball down field on this Irish D, it ain’t getting better because they fired BVG. Long term that was the right move, but don’t expect to see some kind of improvement on Saturday.