Why This Campaign (Or Any Campaign) Does Not Matter… But Voting Does
If you are a frequent flyer to the LMBF blog you probably know me as the guy who writes about wrestling. So why is this article about politics? Well the way this election has taken shape there really is not much difference between the debates and Monday Night Raw. For this article I will in fact leave wrestling behind and focus on why campaigns of any sort DO NOT MATTER. How is this article different from every NowThis video or that ultra conservative guy on FaceBook’s non-stop posting? Well the information I am sharing is what I learned earning a very fancy political science degree. That may not mean much to anybody but it makes me feel more qualified than the guy sharing his 436th meme about deleted emails.
Why Campaigns Don’t Matter
So there is this pretty fancy model that some smart political scientists came up with called the minimal effects model. It states that once the candidates from each party are decided 80% of the electorate has already made up their mind on who they are voting for. In fact this can be decided before the candidate is chosen, because statistics show, how a person votes in 3 consecutive elections determines how they vote for the rest of their lives. The major parties are well funded and well organized thus creating a decisive party base. So math majors, what does this leave us with? Yeah 20 %. That 20 % is what us pretentious folk call the low sophisticates, the dumbies, or the Peter Griffins of the world. Yes they are the undecided voters. These voters are the ones that are most likely to be swayed by fancy rhetoric and attack ads, thus that is who the candidates are targeting. So in order to win the election you really only need to win 10.1% of the dumb people vote in the swing states. Kinda depressing isn’t it?
The model also factors in the many crazy things that can happen in a campaign that might change the mind of the voters such as hurricanes, having binders full of women, hating on Big Bird etc.. Guess what? Does not matter! Everyone says Trump is gaffe proof but it turns out everyone is once securing the nomination. The party base stays constant at about 40% per party and the low sophisticates can only really be swayed in the last month of the election. So if you are wondering why the debates and topics are so stupid, it is because they are literally only catering to stupid voters. There is an ad going around where celebrities urge voters to vote for Hillary and in return.. wait for it.. we get to see Mark Ruffalo naked in his next movie. Still think campaigns are trying to get any sort of educated vote?
Keeping Your Base Happy
So we have established that each candidate gets 40% of the electorate. This 40% needs very little attention but cannot completely be ignored. So what do candidates do? Bumper stickers, yard signs, and yes social media spamming. As for the first two, studies have shown that putting up a yard sign or slapping a bumper sticker on the back of your oldsmobile does absolutely nothing to attract new voters. Instead they solidify the voter who put these items in place. There has not been substantial studies on the social media aspect of this but it is fair to make the comparison. For example, has a video of how bigoted Trump is caused Trump supporters to switch sides? Hell No, it fires them up. Has a video of how corrupt Hillary is make Hillary supports hop aboard the Trump train? You get the idea. The social media warriors we so loathe have no chance of changing your mind but rather are justifying their own choice.
Campaigns are useless, but voting is not!
I am pretty tired of everyone complaining about the candidates and usually following up with “I am not going to vote.” THE REASON WE HAVE THESE CANDIDATES IS BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE CHOSE NOT TO VOTE! This is what is called the collective action dilemma where so many people think their vote means nothing and then all of a sudden the small majority of voters gets to make the decisions. I get it you hate the electoral college, so does everyone. It’s probably the second worst college behind insert your schools rival here. You know when the electoral college does not suck, when the candidates are both desirable. So how do we assure this? The Primary! In this primary 28.6% of possible voters came out and chose the fantastical shit sandwich you see before us. I guarantee that if we had 50% turnout we have at least a different Republican nominee if not two different candidates. Think about it, we made 28.6% of the voters choose the nations future leader, no wonder they fucked up.
Others will argue that they did not like any of the candidates so they did not vote in the primary. Republicans have no excuse in this one considering they had like 19 candidates. The Dems were more constrained because their party essentially anointed who they were running next. Regardless I would like to see at this moment how Joe Biden polls as a third party. My point being, find an issue that is super important to you and then find the candidate that agrees with your stance on that issue, it is that simple.
Hot Take: The President DOES NOT MATTER Either
This is not fully accurate but to an extent holds some truth. Of course the president is the leader of our military and the global face of our nation but come on guys. When is the last time the actions of the President have ACTUALLY impacted your daily life? Don’t give me that bullshit that there is 40 dollars less in your paycheck. (I am not advocating for more taxes I am just saying I am not as mad about being taxed as I used to.) So they don’t matter! All they really do is act as a punching bag for the blame when shit goes wrong. Do you know who does impact your life, YOUR LOCAL POLITICIANS. Whether it’s your mayor or congressman, the actions they take will impact your life. That shitty street you now have to avoid because of construction…. local politician. That sweet new bocce court that keeps your Italian neighborhood loud and boisterous… local politician. The sad truth is people do not care about their congressman and that’s why congress is so shitty. If the masses did pay attention to congress, Congress would be fucking awesome because they would have to be held accountable by a large audience. If you do not like what a president has done you can only blame congress for allowing it to happen. They are the voice of our collective communities and if they do not express your wishes, get em outta there.
Why Third Party Voting is Useless
Sorry Gary nothing personal but you had to see this coming. As stated earlier 80% of the vote is decided by major party affiliation. So that only leaves 20% left to grab. Even if Johnson got all 20% he would still lose. But many argue that multi-party systems work well in Europe… Do they? Let’s say there are 5 parties and each party makes up exactly 20% of a parliament. Well in order to get anything done or win any election that parliament would need a majority or 50% +1. This is only achievable by creating alliances with the other parties. If these alliances persist, which they always do, you are left with one large group in alliance against another large group, thus two parties. This is called Duvurger’s Law and it does not fail to oust multi- party claims.
In closing, campaigns mean nothing to anyone with half a brain, and voting is SUPER important in the primary. The best way to learn is from our mistakes. So next time around let’s be on our voting game. And to those who think a Clinton or Trump presidency will be the end of the world remember the fact that the executive really does not hold much power that Congress and the Judiciary cannot check. It is not often I stray away form wrestling posts so I will leave you with a GIF of Trump getting the Stone Cold Stunner. Stay pretty America.