NFL Divisional Round DFS Picks6 min read
The reduced slate of NFL playoff weekends isn’t great for betting; I hate being forced to pick games from a small slate. So to get my taste of gambling, I’ve been playing some DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) this playoff season. After bringing home some cash last weekend thanks to Paul Richardson, I decided to do a little preview article for this weekend. Here we go
Expensive Play: Aaron Rodgers: 8,200
His ownership rates are going to be ridiculous. He is considerably more expensive than all the other QB’s. Don’t matter. Rodgers is easily the top play of the weekend, his Packers team is going to be throwing all night, and the Cowboys don’t have a great secondary by any means. Rodgers is an expensive play, but if you want to pay it up, Rodgers is going to produce.
Value Play: Matt Ryan: 7,000
Love Matt Ryan this weekend. Atlanta found success in Seattle earlier this year, and got the week off to prepare for this one. A Ryan-Julio Jones stack is looking like a winner this weekend to me. Ryan is absolutely my #1 play for the money this weekend.
Cheap Play: Dak Prescott: 6,000
His ownership rate is going to very high, as he is a super cheap option vs. possibly the worst pass defense in the NFL. I think Dak-Rodgers are going to combine for at minimum 50% of ownership this weekend. That being said, I do believe Dak is a nice play. The Packers can’t stop the pass, and I think they will really try to key in on Zeke. For 6,000, I totally understand getting Dak in your lineup
Fade: Tom Brady: 7,600
I just think they’re favored by too much to like Brady at this price. Matt Ryan is 600 cheaper and just seems like a better play to me. I don’t doubt Brady has a solid game, but the volume just might not be there.
Advice/Strategy: With these small slates, I would always advise a stack with your QB. Here are the stacks I would go with for each QB.
Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams-Jared Cook
Tom Brady-Julian Edelman
Matt Ryan-Julio Jones-Taylor Gabriel
Russell Wilson-Paul Richardson-Jimmy Graham
Ben Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown
Dak Prescott-Cole Beasley-Terrence Williams
Alex Smith-Jeremy Maclin-Travis Kelce (Really low ownership I would guess if you want to get weird)
Brock.. haha just don’t.
Expensive Play: Ezekiel Elliot: 8,500
I imagine his ownership rates will be through the roof as well, but I just can’t argue Bell for an extra 2,000. In a pure ranking I might like Bell straight up, but for the money you have to side with Zeke.
Value Play: Spencer Ware: 5,200
Can’t believe guys like Ty Montgomery and Lamar Miller are both above him. Besides Bell and Zeke, I don’t know if I like a single RB more than Ware. He has been banged up but Andy Reid has been consistently saying he will be in there. I’m predicting 80 yards and a score for Ware at least.
Cheap Play: Dion Lewis: 3,900
James White for 3,400 is also in play, but I like the backup Patriots RB’s for sure. The Pats figure to be up big, so they both figure to get some 2nd half carries when running up the clock. But more than that, Oakland’s gameplan both times they played the Texans was to feed the RB in the pass game, and it worked wonderfully during the regular season. I see the Patriots going with a similar gameplan, and Lewis/White are the pass catchers.
Fade: Lamar Miller: 5,600
I just don’t know how you can possibly play Miller over a Spencer Ware type. The Texas offer no passing attack, and I just don’t see a scenario where the Pats don’t suffocate Miller and force Brock to beat them. Fade Miller
Expensive Play: Julio Jones: 8,400
Julio is my lock of the week. Going to absolutely have him in my lineup. A Ryan-Jones stack seems like the best stack of the week. He is 1,200 cheaper than Antonio Brown, and I would much prefer Julio. He had no problem with the Seahawks earlier in the year, and is healthy once again. Love Love Love Julio this weekend.
Value Play: Julian Edelman: 6,800
I just can’t believe Edelman is behind Baldwin, Nelson and Adams. Edelman is the clear #1 receiver for Tom Brady, in the playoffs, in a game they are favored by 16. Edelman for 6,800 is terrific value.
Cheap Play: Terrance Williams: 3,100
Super Cheap play, but if you’re going cheap with Dak at QB, why not double down and grab a super cheap WR too. Williams had a great game vs. the Packers earlier in the year without Dez in there, and is a decent bet for a TD. Simply put I think Williams for next to nothing is a great bet, and if you have Dak in there I say go cheap twice and get Williams too.
Fade: Doug Baldwin: 8,100 and Randall Cobb: 5,700
Baldwin is just overpriced. He might have a good game sure, but I just don’t know how you play 8,100 for Baldwin with Adams at 7,000 and Edelman at 6,800. Just terrible price for Baldwin. Totally avoiding him. And then Cobb’s ownership rates are going to be obnoxious. I say fade him, last week is not sustainable. That Hail Mary totally inflated his numbers. Fading Cobb.
Expensive Play: Jimmy Graham: 4,900
Love Graham at this price, I like him more than Kelce straight up, so to get him for a 1,200 discount is a bargain. The Seahawks should be throwing in the dome, and the Falcons have been brutal against the TE. Love Graham this weekend.
Value Play: Jared Cook: 3,900
The obvious play of the week. People love Cook’s TD potential, and for 3,900, all he really has to do is score once. I think his ownership rates will be huge, so I’m not necessarily jumping on him, but there is no doubt he provides great value at 3,900.
Cheap Play: Jason Witten: 3,500
Dak’s first playoff game, he is going to be looking for his safety valve. Enter Witten. For 3,500 he is a nice cheap play with small TD potential.
Fade: Travis Kelce: 6,100
Just give me Jimmy Graham please. No reason to pay the extra 1,200 for Kelce to me.
These are a toss up. I like the Falcons D/ST for 2,600 personally. Seattle’s O-Line is a mess, so a road playoff game in a dome vs. Vic Beasley could result in some madness.
My Official Draftkings Lineup:
QB- Matt Ryan: 7,000
RB- Ezekiel Elliot: 8,500
RB- Spencer Ware: 5,200
WR- Julio Jones: 8,400
WR- Davante Adams: 7,000
WR- Jermaine Kearse: 3,300
TE- Jared Cook: 3,900
FLEX- Dion Lewis: 3,900
D/ST- Atlanta Falcons: 2,600
Ended up going with Cook over Graham, just so much TD potential and wanted a piece of Green Bay offense. Decided to get Adams too so I have a good slice of the Green Bay offense, offsets not owning Rodgers. And then threw Jermaine Kearse in there because I think Seattle is playing catch up all night, and Kearse is 800 cheaper than Paul Richardson. Needed some exposure to Seattle there. It’s a home run play.