Were back after a 2 week hiatus in order to get a better feel for the teams, since I didn’t do any research or anything during the off-season. This year, were going bigger, betting 10 units a week.
South Carolina -6.5 vs. Kentucky
South Carolina has gone on the road* and beat two Power 5 opponents in Missouri and North Carolina State, and beaten them pretty convincingly at that. Debo Samuel is a difference maker on offense and special teams, and Will Muschamp always has his defense in shape. On the other side, Kentucky has looked overwhelmingly meh in two Non-Power Conference tune-ups vs. Eastern Kentucky and Southern Mississippi. Look for South Carolina to come out in their home opener and roll the Wildcats.
*2 UNIT PLAY* Memphis +3 vs. UCLA
UCLA’s California heavy roster has played two games in California, and now travels across the country to play a 9 AM PST game against Memphis, who should have a rowdy crowd for this rare matchup. That alone has me in at a one unit play. The other unit comes from UCLA being overvalued after a lucky win vs. Texas A&M where they were completely outplayed and a win over a terrible Hawaii team. They can’t stop the run at all and Riley Ferguson is an experienced talented QB. Memphis wins this outright.
Louisville vs. Clemson UNDER 56
In what should be one of the games of the year, I really wanted to take Clemson on the road -3. I really did. But Kelly Bryant hasn’t looked all that special, and this will be his first ever road start, against a Louisville defense with some playmakers in the secondary. That ain’t good. On the other side of the ball, Clemson has the nations best DL and a good group of LB’s, so I fully expect them to dominate the line of scrimmage and keep Lamar Jackson scrambling all night. I’m expecting an extremely conservative gameplan from the Tigers, keeping this one in the 40’s overall. Bet the Under.
Purude +7.5 @ Missouri
Jeff Brohm is bringing Purdue back. Missouri’s defense is pretty awful, and they didn’t impress much against South Carolina last week. This is a chance for Purdue to make a bit of a statement and come out and beat an SEC team on the road, and I think Jeff Brohm and company is ready to do it. At 7.5, you have to love it.
*2 UNITS* Tulane +34 @ Oklahoma
Let. Down. Game. Tulane runs a funky Triple Option attack that requires attention to detail, an attention Oklahoma might not have coming off their massive win. I expect Baker Mayfield and company to come out a little sloppy and win a bit of a shootout, something along the lines of 52-28. Take the 34 points.
Tennessee +4.5 @ Florida
Florida isn’t very good. Tennessee isn’t a great team by any means, but taking away the 2.5 for home field advantage I still would never favor this Florida offense over a solid SEC team in the Vols. Look for a slug fest with a lot of running plays ending in a field goal game. Take the 4.5 points and don’t watch this game.
Vanderbilt +3.5 vs. Kansas State
SEC! SEC! Derek Mason can coach a defense, and Kansas State rarely sees athletes like this on the other side. That Vandy offense doesn’t strike fear in anyone but they won’t have to if Derek Mason’s D pitches a shutout. Vandy 10, K-State 7.
California +3.5 vs. Ole Miss
Justin Wilcox has Cal 2-0 with a big name SEC team coming way out West for a 10:30 ET game. Ole Miss has done nothing to convince me they are improved from last year, and while betting against a top flight QB like Shea Patterson is difficult, I am going to ride with the points and take the Bears to get to 3-0.